Final FY 2011 Fair Market Rent Documentation System

The Final FY 2011 West Hartford town FMRs for All Bedroom Sizes

The following table shows the Final FY 2011 FMRs by unit bedrooms.

Final FY 2011 FMRs By Unit Bedrooms
  Efficiency One-Bedroom Two-Bedroom Three-Bedroom Four-Bedroom
Final FY 2011 FMR $760 $910 $1,113 $1,337 $1,659

The remainder of this page provides complete documentation of the development of the Final FY 2011 Fair Market Rents (FMRs) for West Hartford town, Connecticut. This page provides a summary and details of how the Final FY 2011 FMRs were developed and updated starting with the formation of the FY 2011 FMR Areas from the metropolitan Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) as established by the Office of Management and Budget and incorporating newly available 2008 one and three year American Community Survey (ACS) Data. FY 2011 FMRs include information from local Random Digit Dialing (RDD) surveys conducted through 2009. Aspects of the derivation of Final FY 2011 rents exclusive to FY 2011 are made explicit in the following text. Aspects unchanged from FY 2010 can be reviewed by clicking on the associated link.

The following defines a summary of the steps taken to generate the Final FY 2011 FMR:

Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT HUD Metro FMR Area Final FY 2011 FMR Calculation Summary
Process Step Step Result
1. Begin with Final FY 2010 2 Bedroom FMR $1,095
2. Remove Trending and CPI Updates from Final FY 2010 2 Bedroom FMR $985
3. Determine Update Factor through 2008 1.0555
4. Apply Update Factor (#2 x #3) $1,040
5. Evaluate ACS Survey Result and Determine 2008 Rent $1,040
6a. Calculate Update Factors to 2009 and
6b. Trend Factor to April 1, 2011
1.0318
1.0376
7. Apply Update Factor to 2009 and Trend to Get Final FY 2011 2BR FMR
(#5 x #6a x #6b)
$1,113

FY 2011 FMR Area Geography

FY 2011 FMR Areas Follow FY 2010 Area Definitions with Modifications

FY 2011 FMR areas continue to use the revised Office of Management and Budget (OMB) area definitions that were first issued in 2003 along with HUD defined Metropolitan areas (HMFAs) as described in the FY 2009 FMR documentation which can be found at (West Hartford town FY 2010 FMR Documentation system). FY 2011 areas reflect changes made to metropolitan areas by OMB through December 1, 2009 as published in OMB bulletin 10-02.

West Hartford town is in the new Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT HUD Metro FMR Area, so all information presented here applies to all of the Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT HUD Metro FMR Area.

Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT HUD Metro FMR Area is made up of the following:

HARTFORD COUNTY, CT TOWNS OF Avon town, CT ; Berlin town, CT ; Bloomfield town, CT ; Bristol town, CT ; Burlington town, CT ; Canton town, CT ; East Granby town, CT ; East Hartford town, CT ; East Windsor town, CT ; Enfield town, CT ; Farmington town, CT ; Glastonbury town, CT ; Granby town, CT ; Hartford town, CT ; Hartland town, CT ; Manchester town, CT ; Marlborough town, CT ; New Britain town, CT ; Newington town, CT ; Plainville town, CT ; Rocky Hill town, CT ; Simsbury town, CT ; Southington town, CT ; South Windsor town, CT ; Suffield town, CT ; West Hartford town, CT ; Wethersfield town, CT ; Windsor town, CT ; Windsor Locks town, CT ;
MIDDLESEX COUNTY, CT TOWNS OF Chester town, CT ; Cromwell town, CT ; Durham town, CT ; East Haddam town, CT ; East Hampton town, CT ; Haddam town, CT ; Middlefield town, CT ; Middletown town, CT ; Portland town, CT ;
TOLLAND COUNTY, CT TOWNS OF Andover town, CT ; Bolton town, CT ; Columbia town, CT ; Coventry town, CT ; Ellington town, CT ; Hebron town, CT ; Mansfield town, CT ; Somers town, CT ; Stafford town, CT ; Tolland town, CT ; Union town, CT ; Vernon town, CT ; Willington town, CT .

West Hartford town FMR Area Derivation (RECAP)

The Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT HUD Metro FMR Area is a HUD-defined metropolitan FMR area that is part of the Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT MSA, but differs from the OMB defined CBSA because some other part of the Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT MSA has a 2000 Census 40th Percentile Base Rent and/or a 2000 Census Median Family Income that differs from the official metropolitan area's 2000 Census 40th Percentile Base Rent and/or 2000 Census Median Family Income by at least 5 percent.

The 2000 Census 40th Percentile Base Rent for Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT Evaluated Metro FMR Area ($700) does not differ from the 2000 Census 40th Percentile Base Rent for Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT MSA ($702) by at least 5 percent:

1 - ($700 / $702) = 1 - 0.997 = 0.3 percent < 5.0 percent.

Additionally, HUD compared the 2000 Census Median Family Income for Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT HUD Metro FMR Area ($64,264) to the 2000 Census Median Family Income for Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT MSA ($64,783) to see if the difference is more than 5.0 percent. As can be seen from the calculation below, the difference is less than 5.0 percent:

1 - ($64,264 / $64,783) = 1 - 0.992 = 0.8 percent < 5.0 percent.


Final FY 2011 FMRs

HUD continues its use of ACS data in FY 2011, by building upon the FY 2010 Final FMRs (West Hartford town FY 2010 FMR Documentation system). As in FY 2010, HUD uses 2008 ACS data in four different ways according to how many two-bedroom standard quality and recent mover sample cases are available in the FMR area or its Core-Based Statistical Area (CBSA). ACS-1 through ACS-4 areas are described in detail here.

In most cases, Final FY 2011 FMRs are based on changes in rents measured by differences in ACS data collected in either 2006 or 2007 and 2008 and updated CPI rent and utility inflation indexes. Depending on the size of the ACS survey sample, State or Local ACS data is used to update a June 2007-calculated gross rent from the Final FY 2010 FMRs (West Hartford town FY 2010 FMR Documentation system) to June 2008. In some cases, as described below, the 2008 ACS Survey result is used instead of the updated value. The ACS updated 2008 rent is then adjusted with CPI inflation factors that measure changes from mid-2008 though year end 2009 and 1.25 years of trending to arrive at Final FY 2011 FMRs. RDD survey results are applied where available and appropriate.

Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT HUD Metro FMR Area is an ACS-1 area.

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Similar to the calculation methodology used in FY2010, for FY2011 Final FMRs, HUD continues to use a statistical test to determine if the change in the survey estimates from separate surveys are statistically significant. This test is described and completed below.


Generating a June, 2007 Rent from FY 2010 Final FMRs

In order to apply changes in ACS surveys to FMRs (ACS data are assumed to be as of June of their respective survey years), FY 2010 FMRs are first deflated to mid-2007 values by removing the CPI inflation and trend factors used to update mid-2007 values to April, 2010 inherent in the Final FY 2010 FMRs.(West Hartford town FY 2010 FMR Documentation system.)

Rent2007=
Final FY 2010 Rent

(CPI Change2007).5 * (CPI Change2008) * (Trend)

Rent2007=
$1,095

(1.0392).5 * (1.0509) * (1.0376)

Rent2007=
$1,095

(1.0194) * (1.0509) * (1.0376)

Rent2007=
$1,095

(1.0713) * (1.0376)

Rent2007=
$1,095

1.1116

Rent2007 = $985

The Update Factor using 2008 ACS Data

As stated earlier, Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT HUD Metro FMR Area is an ACS-1 area.

ACS-1 areas are areas that have at least 200 ACS standard quality survey results in both the ACS surveys used to calculate the update factor.

The 2008 ACS data contains enough Recent Mover observations for Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT HUD Metro FMR Area to evaluate whether the 2008 updated rent is statistically different from the survey result. As will be shown in the table below, the 2008 updated rent is not statistically different from the 2008 Recent Mover ACS Survey result for Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT HUD Metro FMR Area.

Because the change in ACS data from 2007 to 2007 for Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT MSA was not statistically significant, HUD uses the 2007 and 2008 standard quality results for Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT MSA in the calculation of the update factor. (West Hartford town FY 2010 FMR Documentation system.)

The 2007 ACS result is $955 and the 2008 ACS result is $1,008. This leads to an unadjusted update factor of:

UpdateFactor07-08 = $1,008 / $955

UpdateFactor07-08 = 1.0555

As was done in FY2010, Final FY 2011 FMRs, HUD tests to see if the change in ACS survey results from is statistically significant. This is done by computing a "Z-Score". If the Z-Score value is greater than 1.645 the 2 survey results are considered to statistically different from each other. If the Z-Score is less than 1.645 then the change is considered to be statistically insignificant and the change factor is set to 1.

The Z-Score is calculated as:

Z=
EST08 - EST07

(SE082 + SE072)

Where EST07 is the 2007 ACS Survey Estimate, EST08 is the 2008 ACS Survey Estimate, SE07 is the standard error of the 2007 ACS Survey Estimate and SE08 is the standard error of the 2008 ACS Survey Estimate.

Z=
1,008 - 955

(9.7262 + 11.5502)

Z=
53

(94.604 + 133.406)

Z=
53

228.010

Z=
53

15.1

Z = 3.510

As can be seen from the calculation above the z-score is greater than 1.645. Therefore the update factor is 1.0555. Consequently, the 2008 updated intermediate rent for Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT HUD Metro FMR Area is:

2008 ACS Recent Mover Survey Result Evaluation for
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT HUD Metro FMR Area
Rent2007 Local SQ Update Factor Local SQ Updated Rent 2008 ACS Local
Recent Mover Rent
2008 ACS Survey
Confidence Interval
Is the Local SQ-Updated Rent Outside The Confidence Interval of RM Rent? 2008 Basis 2008 Intermediate Rent
$985 1.0555 $1,040 $1,038 $1,016-$1,060 NO
Recent Mover Rent is not statistically different from updated rent
SQ updated rent $1,040

NOTE: The update factor shown in the calculation above may not match exactly the 2008 update factor shown throughout the demonstration due to the rounding of Fair Market Rents to whole dollar amounts


The 2008-to-2011 Update Factors

HUD updates the 2008 intermediate rent (as of June 2008) with the appropriate CPI change (local or regional) to establish rents as of December 2009. HUD then applies additional trending or results of Random Digit Dialing (RDD) surveys to update rents to April, 2011, the mid-point of FY 2011.

The Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT HUD Metro FMR Area has the following 2008-to-2011 Update Factor:

Update Factors used between June 2008 and April 2011
Year Update Factor Type
6/2008 to 2009 1.0318 Regional CPI factor
2009 to 2011 1.0376 Trend Factor
3% for 1.25 Years
=1.031.25

Final FY 2011 2-Bedroom FMR

The Final FY 2011 2-Bedroom FMR is simply the product of the 2007 Rent from deflated from final FY 2010 FMRs, the 2008 update factor and the 2008-to-2011 Update Factors for Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT HUD Metro FMR Area as determined above:

Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT HUD Metro FMR Area Final FY 2011 FMR

= $985 * 1.0555 * 1.0318 * 1.0376

= $1,040 * 1.0318 * 1.0376

= $1,073 * 1.0376

= $1,113


The Final FY 2011 Rents for All Bedroom Sizes

The following table shows the Final FY 2011 FMRs by unit bedrooms. The FMRs for units with different numbers of bedrooms are computed from the ratio of the 2005 Revised Final FMRs (based on 2000 Decennial Census Data) for the different unit sizes to the 2005 2-Bedroom Revised Final FMRs. These Rent Ratios are applied to the Final FY 2011 2-Bedroom FMR to determine the Final FY 2011 FMRs for the different size units.

Click on the links in the table to see how the bedroom rents were derived.

Final FY 2011 FMRs By Unit Bedrooms
  Efficiency One-Bedroom Two-Bedroom Three-Bedroom Four-Bedroom
Final FY 2011 FMR $760 $910 $1,113 $1,337 $1,659

The FMRs for unit sizes larger than four bedrooms are calculated by adding 15 percent to the four bedroom FMR, for each extra bedroom. For example, the FMR for a five bedroom unit is 1.15 times the four bedroom FMR, and the FMR for a six bedroom unit is 1.30 times the four bedroom FMR. FMRs for single-room occupancy units are 0.75 times the zero bedroom (efficiency) FMR.

NOTE: This is a 50th Percentile Final FY 2011 FMR as established by HUD regulations. Under current regulations, the Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT HUD Metro FMR Area 50th percentile status will be re-evaluated in 2012.

To see the Final FY 2011 40th Percentile Rents for Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT HUD Metro FMR Area, click here.



Other HUD Metro FMR Areas in the Same MSA


Related Final FY 2011 FMR Areas


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