Final FY 2010 Fair Market Rent Documentation System
The Final FY 2010 Northumberland County FMRs for All Bedroom Sizes
The following table shows the Final FY 2010 FMRs by unit bedrooms.
Final FY 2010 FMRs By Unit Bedrooms
Efficiency
One-Bedroom
Two-Bedroom
Three-Bedroom
Four-Bedroom
Adjusted FY 2010 FMR
$398
$519
$579
$717
$743
The remainder of this page provides complete documentation of the development of the
Final FY 2010 Fair Market Rents (FMRs) for
Northumberland County, Pennsylvania.
This page provides a summary and details of how the Final FY 2010 FMRs
were developed and updated starting with the formation of the FY 2010 FMR Areas from the
metropolitan Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) as established by the Office of Management and Budget
and incorporating newly available 2007 one and three year American Community Survey (ACS) Data.
FY 2010 FMRs include information from local Random Digit Dialing (RDD) surveys conducted during
2008. Aspects of the derivation of Final FY 2010 rents exclusive to FY 2010 are made explicit in the following text.
Aspects unchanged from FY 2009 can be reviewed by clicking on the associated link.
Note that Northumberland County, Pennsylvania is assigned
the
State Minimum 2-bedroom FMR for Pennsylvania of $579
and the other FMRs are derived from this base. The following sections
of this page indicate how the unadjusted 2-Bedroom FMR for Northumberland County, Pennsylvania
is derived, while the final section shows how the FMRs for other unit sizes are derived from the state minimum base.
The following defines a summary of the steps taken to generate the Final FY 2010 FMR:
Northumberland County, PA Final FY 2010 FMR Calculation Summary
Process Step
Step Result
1. Begin with Final FY 2009 2 Bedroom FMR
$561
2. Remove Trending and CPI Updates from Final FY 2009 2 Bedroom FMR
HUD continues its use of ACS data in FY 2010, by building upon the FY 2009 Final FMRs (Northumberland County FY 2009 FMR Documentation system).
As in FY 2009, HUD uses 2007 ACS data in four different ways according to how many two-bedroom standard quality and recent mover sample cases are available in the FMR area or its
Core-Based Statistical Area (CBSA). ACS-1 through ACS-4 areas are described in detail here.
In most cases, Final FY 2010 FMRs are based on changes in rents measured by differences in ACS data collected in 2006 and 2007 and updated
CPI rent and utility inflation indexes. Depending on the size of the ACS survey sample, State or Local ACS data is used to update a June 2006-calculated
gross rent from the Final FY 2009 FMRs (Northumberland County FY 2009 FMR Documentation system)
to June 2007. In some cases, as described below, the 2007 ACS Survey result is used instead of a 2006 to 2007 updated value. The ACS updated 2007
rent is then adjusted with CPI inflation factors that measure changes from mid-2007 though year end 2008 and 1.25 years of trending to arrive at
Final FY 2010 FMRs. RDD survey results are applied where available and appropriate.
Northumberland County, PA is an ACS-3 area.
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New for FY2010 Final FMRs, HUD has implemented a statistical test to determine if the change in the survey estimates from the 2006 ACS survey estimate
to the 2007 ACS survey is statistically signficant. This test is described and completed below.
In order to apply 2006 to 2007 ACS changes to FMRs (ACS data are assumed to be as of June of their respective survey years), FY 2009 FMRs are first
deflated to mid-2006 values by removing the CPI inflation and trend factors used to update mid-2006 values to April, 2009 inherint in the Final FY
2009 FMRs.(Northumberland County FY 2009 FMR Documentation system.)
Rent2006
=
Final FY 2009 Rent (CPI Change2006).5 x (CPI Change2007) x (Trend)
Rent2006
=
$561 (1.0480).5 x (1.0392) x (1.0376)
Rent2006
=
$561 (1.0237) x (1.0392) x (1.0376)
Rent2006
=
$561 (1.0638) x (1.0376)
Rent2006
=
$561 1.1039
Rent2006 = $496
The 2006 to 2007 Update Factor using 2007 ACS Data
As stated earlier, Northumberland County, PA is an ACS-3 area.
There are fewer than 200 standard quality 2006 and 2007 ACS cases for Northumberland County, PA. Therefore, the 2006 - 2007 update factor is based on the
change in standard quality 2-bedroom rents between the 2006 and 2007 ACS at the state level.
The update factor for Northumberland County, PA is 1.0254,
which is calculated as the ratio of the 2007 State ACS median rents in Pennsylvania to the 2006 State ACS median standard quality rent.
This update factor yields a 2007 Intermediate rent for Northumberland County, PA of $496 x 1.0254 =
$509.
NOTE: The update factor shown in the calculation above may not match exactly the 2006 to 2007 factor shown throughout the demonstration
due to the rounding of Fair Market Rents to whole dollar amounts
HUD updates the 2007 intermediate rent (as of June 2007) with the appropriate CPI change (local or regional) to establish rents as of December 2008.
HUD then applies additional trending or results of Random Digit Dialing (RDD) surveys to update rents to April, 2010, the mid-point of FY 2010.
The Northumberland County, PA has the following 2007-to-2010 Update Factor:
Update Factors used between June 2006 and April 2008
The Final FY 2010 2-Bedroom FMR is simply the product of the
2006 Rent from deflated from FINAL FY 2009 FMRs, the 2006 to 2007 update factor and the 2006-to-2010 Update Factors for Northumberland County, PA as determined above:
Northumberland County, PA Final FY 2010 FMR
= $496 x 1.0254 x 1.0713 x 1.0376
= $509 x 1.0713 x 1.0376
= $545 x 1.0376
= $566
NOTE: The difference between the demonstration calculated FMR and the actual unadjusted published FMR shown below is due to rounding.
The following table shows the
Final FY 2010 FMRs by unit bedrooms.
The State Minimum-Based FMRs for units
with different numbers of bedrooms are computed from the ratio of the
unadjusted 2005 Revised FMRs (based on 2000 Decennial Census Data) for the different unit sizes to the
unadjusted 2005 2-Bedroom Revised Final FMR. These Rent Ratios are applied to the
the Final FY 2010 State Minimum 2-Bedroom FMR for Pennsylvania of
$579
to determine the Final FY 2010 FMRs
for the different size units.
Click on the links in the table to see how the unadjusted bedroom rents were derived.
The FMRs for unit sizes larger than four bedrooms are calculated by adding 15 percent to the four bedroom FMR, for each extra bedroom.
For example, the FMR for a five bedroom unit is 1.15 times the four bedroom FMR, and the FMR for a six bedroom unit is 1.30 times the four bedroom
FMR. FMRs for single-room occupancy units are 0.75 times the zero bedroom (efficiency) FMR.
