During the 1980s and 1990s, homelessness ranked at the top of federal, state, and local governments' policy agendas. State and local governments mobilized by building emergency shelters and transitional housing for the growing unhoused population. Congress enacted the Stewart B. McKinney Homeless Assistance Act in 1987, which distributed funds directly to state and local governments, allowing them to decide how best to serve their homeless populations. In the 1990s the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) began emphasizing continuum of care, recognizing the need for a range of services to help individuals find and maintain permanent shelter. Government efforts succeeded in increasing programs serving people considered homeless—persons sleeping in facilities serving the homeless, places accepting vouchers from homeless assistance programs, or places not meant as sleeping accommodations. However, the increase in homeless services has been met with a corresponding increase in people accessing these services, causing policymakers, researchers, and service providers to ask whether these services are alleviating the problem.

Two recent studies provide insight into this question. In Helping America's Homeless: Emergency Shelter or Affordable Housing? Martha Burt, Laudan Y. Aron, and Edgar Lee, with Jesse Valente, use National Survey of Homeless Assistance Providers and Clients (NSHAPC) data to examine the growth in homeless assistance services, including emergency shelters, housing vouchers, transitional and permanent housing programs, food and healthcare programs, and the subsequent increase in the number of people accessing services. Homeless adults and children in Minnesota: Statewide survey of people without permanent shelter, a survey conducted by the Wilder Research Center, presents the results of the 2000 survey of people without permanent shelter living in Minnesota. Data from both studies suggest that although expanded services offer much-needed support, long-term affordable housing options are needed to prevent at-risk persons from becoming homeless and to end homelessness for those already on the streets.

Is the Homeless Population Increasing?

Understanding the elements of homelessness, characteristics of the unhoused, and the services they access offers a glimpse at the root of homelessness and how government, service providers, and communities can develop strategies that go beyond merely meeting the basic needs for food and temporary shelter. However, the transience of America's unhoused makes it difficult to quantify the homeless population and determine who is at risk of becoming homeless. In addition to having no fixed address, individuals may experience bouts of homelessness lasting a few days or several years, and a significant number return to homelessness after leaving the streets, resulting in constant population fluctuation.

An estimated 7,589 adults and children were identified as homeless throughout Minnesota on October 26, 2000. This is a 36-percent increase over the Wilder Research Center's 1997 survey. These estimates are based on a census of people residing in emergency shelters, battered women's shelters, and transitional shelters in the state and surveys administered by volunteers to those living in these shelters and on the streets. The researchers emphasize that this estimate is low because it does not capture individuals living in short-term arrangements with friends or family and a significant number of people living on the streets.

Like the numbers used in Minnesota, the NSHAPC estimates used by Burt and colleagues are based on the number of individuals accessing homeless services. The survey estimates that 346,000 homeless clients (households) used homeless services during an average week in October/November 1996. To highlight the fluctuation in the homeless population, the authors also present an estimate for a week in February 1996 that places the population at 637,000 homeless clients. It should be noted that the service providers included in the NSHAPC survey were not limited to emergency shelters and transitional housing, resulting in non-, near-, and previously homeless people being included in the estimates. The data also exclude those living on the street who do not access homeless services. The authors consider this in their analysis, but the data limitations emphasize how hard it is to quantify the homeless problem.

Using the October/November and February average weekly estimates, Burt and colleagues project that between 532,000 and 842,000 individuals are homeless each year. The large variation makes it difficult to tell if the national homeless population is increasing, but it is clear that the number of homeless services and service providers, as well as the number accessing the services, are increasing nationally. According to the authors, between 1988 and 1996 housing capacity for the homeless increased nearly 220 percent from 275,000 beds to 608,000 beds with most of the growth in transitional housing.

Who Is At Risk of Becoming Homeless?

"Essential elements of homelessness as a social problem are so extreme that homeless people cannot remove their homeless condition themselves," state Burt and colleagues. For low-income persons precariously housed, loss of a job, health problems, or problems with alcohol or drugs can propel them into the street. Analysis of the NSHAPC data uncovers risk factors—both structural and personal—associated with persons accessing homeless services, including:

• Being single.

• Low level of educational attainment.

• Isolation from family, friends, and social support.

• Health problems.

• Extreme poverty.

• Problems with alcohol, drugs, or mental health.

• Adverse experiences during childhood, including abuse and time spent in the foster care system.

The homeless in Minnesota display comparable risk factors. Three out of five people interviewed for the Wilder Research Center had never been married, 32 percent reported having significant mental health problems, 32 percent have a chemical dependency, and 33 percent reported being mistreated as children.

Agencies have modified their services during the 1990s to respond to these risk factors according to Helping America's Homeless. Agencies are offering job placement, alcohol and drug programs, and health services in addition to shelter services.

The Role of Affordable Housing

The findings from both Helping America's Homeless and Homeless adults and children in Minnesota highlight the need for policymakers at the federal, state, and local levels as well as homeless service providers and affordable housing advocates to evaluate the importance of permanent, affordable housing in preventing and solving homelessness.

For Minnesota, evidence indicates that homeless programs are not enough to meet the needs of the nearly 21,329 people living in shelters, on Minnesota's streets, and those precariously housed in temporary arrangements with friends and family. Homeless services are at capacity. The number of people turned away by agencies serving the homeless has doubled since 1997. At the heart of the problem is the inability of full-time workers to find safe, decent, affordable housing. The Wilder Research Center finds that although 41 percent of homeless adults surveyed work either full- or part-time, low wages and high housing costs prevent them from locating shelter, extending their period of homelessness and dependence on homeless assistance. The researchers are quick to emphasize that to end homelessness new programs should still be flexible to meet the myriad of homeless needs, among which is stable, low-cost housing.

However, Burt and colleagues argue that affordable housing should be a top priority in fighting homelessness. Existing services alone only address short-term needs rather than provide the long-term stability needed to prevent and end future homelessness. The authors cite increased provision of services and the proportional growth in demand with no sign of a decrease in the homeless population as the need for the policy shift. The reduction in the affordable housing stock and HUD's documented increase in struggling renter households make it even more difficult for the homeless to find housing. The authors concede that, for many, an integrated system of existing services and affordable housing may be the best way to meet the immediate needs of the unhoused. However, Burt and colleagues believe that a U.S. homeless policy that increases affordable housing can help prevent homelessness.