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Trend Factor Calculation for Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA

For many years, HUD has used a Gross Rent Index as part of the Fair Market Rent (FMR) estimation process. Primarily, HUD uses the Gross Rent Index to inflate gross rent data collected in Census Bureau or other surveys from the collection data to a later time, for example, in the Proposed FY 2017 FMRs, HUD uses a Gross Rent Index to inflate rents from 2014 dollars as provided in ACS data to 2015 dollars.

In FY2016, HUD implemented a trend factor that was based on a national forecast of a gross rent index. This replaced the trend factor used prior to FY2016 that was backward-looking and was calculated as the average national change in gross rent reported by the American Community Survey.

The forecasts of the gross rent index and calculation of the resulting trend factor for Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA are shown below.

CY2015 Actual Gross Rent Index FY2017 Forecasted Gross Rent Index Calculated Trend Factor
274.8510 289.4410 289.4410 / 274.8510 =