Skip to main content

Alternative Fair Market Rents for Local Housing Markets


Authors: Teles, Daniel     Oneto, Alyse     Su, Yipeng     Hariharan, Ananya     Urban Institute     Nisar, Hiren     2M Research    

Report Acceptance Date: July 2022 (106 pages)

Posted Date: May 02, 2023

In their paper “Alternative Fair Market Rents for Local Housing Markets,” a research team from the Urban Institute explored the use of time series models and alternative data sources to improve FMR trend factor estimation in markets with rapidly rising rents. The authors first defined areas considered to have rapidly rising rents and then identified factors believed to be leading indicators of housing supply and demand for which publicly available county-level data are available on a timelier basis than the data currently used to estimate FMRs. Alternative FMRs were estimated using ARIMA and ARIMAX time series models along with the timelier data sources, and the results were then compared to FMR estimates produced by HUD in prior years. The team concluded that FMR estimation overall could be improved with the use of county-level data, but their models were limited in their ability to accurately predict future rents in counties with rapidly rising rents.

document icon  Foreword

document icon  Research Brief from this report.

document icon  Fact Sheet from this report.

Related FMR studies from 2023:

Click the link to access Alternative Methods For Calculating Fair Market Rents (FMRs) in Rental Markets with Rapidly Rising Rents

Click the link to access Fair Market Rents Trend Component Modeling Technical Report


All Publications
Search for Publications
Search for Ongoing Research